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In a stunning development that could mark a watershed moment in Oakland’s political history, Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao appears to be on the verge of becoming the first Oakland mayor to be successfully recalled from office. Thursday afternoon’s vote count revealed an overwhelming margin of nearly 2-to-1 in favor of the recall, with 31,838 supporting her removal compared to 17,002 opposing it.
Crime Wave Sparks Public Outrage
The recall effort gained momentum against the backdrop of Oakland’s deteriorating public safety situation. Under Thao’s administration, the city witnessed an alarming surge in crime rates during 2023, with official statistics showing burglaries up by 23%, vehicle thefts skyrocketing by 45%, and robberies increasing by 38%. Perhaps most concerning to residents was the city’s persistent murder rate, which remained above 100 annual deaths for another consecutive year.
We have very serious challenges, and those challenges do not go away with the recall of the mayor,
stated Seneca Scott, spokesman for Oakland United to Recall Sheng Thao (OUST), the organization spearheading the recall campaign.
Cascade of Controversies
Thao’s relatively brief tenure, which began after winning the closest mayoral election in Oakland’s history in 2022, has been marked by a series of contentious decisions and setbacks. The controversial firing of Police Chief LeRonne Armstrong and her inability to prevent the Oakland Athletics’ relocation to Las Vegas significantly eroded public confidence in her leadership.
The situation reached a critical point this summer when the Alameda County Registrar of Voters confirmed sufficient signatures to trigger the historic recall election. Adding to Thao’s troubles was an FBI raid on her residence and subsequent public reaction, which catalyzed more voters to support the recall petition.
Declining Public Support
Recent polling data has highlighted the extent of public dissatisfaction with Thao’s administration. A notable survey revealed a 69% disapproval rating, with 56% of Oakland voters supporting her recall[6]. The mayor’s political isolation intensified when former Mayor Libby Schaaf publicly withdrew her support just days before the election.
Despite mounting opposition, Thao maintained a defiant stance. In response to the recall effort, she stated,
I have the best job in the world. That’s because every day I have a chance to fight for a safer, more affordable, and more prosperous Oakland.
Leadership Transition Looms
Should the recall succeed, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas would assume the role of interim Mayor until a special election can be held next year. However, this succession plan faces potential complications as Bas is currently running for Alameda County Supervisor.
Alameda County pollster Nathan Martin offered perspective on the situation:
It will be somebody on the Oakland City Council for a year… Thao is, of course, really apprehensive right now. She can’t believe she is at this point, being recalled, after only a few years in office. But it’s the voters seeing her as doing that bad of a job.
Broader Implications
The recall effort in Oakland reflects a wider trend of voter dissatisfaction with local leadership across California. Alongside Thao’s likely recall, Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price faces similar recall pressure, while Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon has already been removed from office.
Carl Chan, a recall organizer, emphasized the significance of this moment:
It is a wake-up call for all of us to learn how to choose and pick the people who are supposed to serve us.
With approximately 40% of votes counted and maintaining a consistent margin in favor of recall, political analysts suggest the likelihood of a turnaround is extremely low. The results appear to mirror Thao’s disapproval ratings, suggesting a clear mandate for change in Oakland’s leadership.
This historic recall vote signals a decisive shift in Oakland’s political landscape, as residents express their frustration with the city’s trajectory through direct democratic action. The outcome could reshape local governance approaches to public safety, housing, and economic development in one of California’s major urban centers.
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